IBA Group, the specialist data intelligence provider and leading aviation consultancy, predicts that Paris Airshow orders could be as low as half of 2018’s yield.
Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Operating Officer, MD-Aviation Services for IBA predicts that firm and MoU orders combined could be as low as 450, and Airbus will potentially launch the A321XLR, and Boeing will not launch the NMA but will set out the re-entry programme of the 737 MAX in more detail.
“To set the scene, 2019 is not shaping up to be a good year on the order front which is not particularly surprising given the headwinds,” comments Dr Hatcher. “Already, year to date, we have an unprecedented number of aircraft returning from failed operators as traffic growth slows, yields continue to soften from an historical low point, fuel costs increase across the medium term and forex is far from ideal. Aside from these economic points, 737 MAX grounding and the China-US Trade problems add to the woes.”
“Despite this doom and gloom, we must stress that the industry remains resilient as the numbers of consumers that can afford to travel continues to grow and all the facets required to support that (such as leasing) will grow and evolve with it. Potential risks are high, and with that comes a greater need to be diligent.”
The consultancy also predicts Mitsubishi to launch the MRJ70 to optimise for scope clause compliance.