The Asia-Pacific region will require 17,620 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2040, with nearly 30% of the new jets replacing older less fuel efficient models, Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) says.
According to the GMF that was released in connection with the Singapore Airshow, the region will see passenger traffic growth of 5.3% per annum over the next 20 years as well as the accelerated retirement of older less fuel efficient aircraft. Cargo traffic in Asia-Pacific is also expected to increase at 3.6% per annum, above the global 3.1% average, leading to a doubling in air freight in the region by 2040.
China, India and emerging economies such as Vietnam and Indonesia will be the principal drivers of growth in Asia-Pacific. The middle class, who are the likeliest to travel, will increase by 1.1 billion to 3.2 billion and the propensity for people to travel is set to almost triple by 2040.
Of the demand for 17,620 aircraft, 13,660 are in the Small category like the A220 and A320 Family. In the medium and long range categories, Asia-Pacific will continue to drive demand with some 42% of global requirement. This translates to 2,470 Medium and 1,490 Large category aircraft.
Cargo traffic in Asia-Pacific will also increase at 3.6% per annum, well above the global 3.1% average and will lead to a doubling in air freight in the region by 2040. Globally, express freight boosted by e-commerce will grow at an even faster pace of 4.7% per year. Overall, there will be a need for some 2,440 freighters, of which 880 will be new-build.
“We are seeing a global recovery in air traffic and as travel restrictions are further eased the Asia-Pacific region will become one of its main drivers again. We are confident of a strong rebound in the region’s traffic and expect it to reach 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025,” said Christian Scherer, Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Airbus International.
Globally, in the next 20 years, there will be a need for some 39,000 new-build passenger and freighter aircraft, of which 15,250 will be for replacement. As a result, by 2040 the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will be the latest generation, up from some 13% today, considerably improving the CO2 efficiency of the world’s commercial aircraft fleets.
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