Honeywell’s 29th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 7,300 new business jet deliveries worth US$235 billion from 2021 to 2030, down 4% in deliveries from the same 10-year forecast a year ago.
Despite the dip, 4 of 5 business jet operators in the survey indicate that purchase plans have not been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Short-term reductions in both deliveries and expenditures due to the pandemic aren’t expected to have a lasting impact on the business jet industry. Business jet deliveries in 2021 are expected to be up 13% from 2020.
“Business jet usage is expected to rebound to 80% to 85% of 2019 levels in the 4th quarter of 2020 and fully rebound by the middle of 2021, indicating demand for business jet travel is returning after the global pandemic caused a slowdown in the industry earlier this year,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace. “The information we gleaned from operators shows a less than 1% decline in five-year purchase plans, so despite the short-term effects of the pandemic, we don’t expect long-term changes to purchase plans or to the overall health of the business jet market.”
According to the study, five-year purchase plans for new business jets are down less than one percentage point compared with last year’s survey. Among the purchase plans of new business jets over the next five years. Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 16% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet.
Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, from large cabin through ultralong- range aircraft, which are expected to account for more than 70% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years. The longer-range forecast through 2030 projects a 4% to 5% average annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide economic recovery.
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