Demand for 10,500 Sub-150-seat Jets and Turboprops Through 2044: Embraer

Our Bureau - : Jun 13, 2025 - : 2:32 am

Embraer's Market Outlook 2025, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category, estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. Of the 10,500 aircraft, 8,720 will be jets while 1,780 will be turboprops. According...

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According to the report, world passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK). is forecast to grow 3.9% annually through 2044, with China, which is detailed separately as a region for the first time because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, in the lead among seven global regions. The total value of the new orders is expected to be US$680 billion. North America will lead jet aircraft deliveries.

According to the document, passenger traffic in the Asia Pacific region will account for 39 per cent of the world traffic, and will be greater than the traffic in North America and Europe taken together (37 per cent). In the The annual RPK regional growth rate ranking, China is first with 5.7%, followed by Latin America (4.7%), Africa and the Middle East (4.4%), Asia Pacific (4.1%), Europe & CIS (3.1%), and North America (2.4%).

Of the 8,720 jet deliveries, North America is forecast to be first on the list with 2,680 deliveries and a 30.7% share while 1,990 jets will go to Europe & CIS (22.8%). China alone will account for 1,500 new jets (17.2%) while 1,050 (12.1%) will go to the Asia Pacific. Latin America is expected to account for 770 jets (8.8%) while 380 jets (4.4%) and 350 (4.0%) are forecast to go to Africa and the Middle East respectively.

The demand for turboprops is greatest in the Asia Pacific; the region will account for 640 aircraft (36.0%) while 280 aircraft will go to North America (15.7%) and 260 to Europe & CIS (14.6%). Africa will see demand for 220 turboprops (12.4%). China, with 200 (11.2%), Latin America with 160 (9.0%) and Middle East with 20 (1.1%), follow.

"Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting," said Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation. "In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals."

The document also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

Embraers-market-outlook-2025 / Sub-150-seat-category / Jets / Turboprops / China /

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