Embraer's Market Outlook 2026, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial jet aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category, estimates 8,500 orders valued at US$650 billion for new jets through 2045. Replacement of aging aircraft will account for 53% of all new deliveries, while 47% will be used to grow markets.
As per the report released in advance of the Farnborough Airshow 2026, world passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), will grow 3.7% annually through 2045. China will lead among seven global regions with a grwoth rate of 5.2% followed by Middle East (4.6%), Africa (4.4%), Latin America & Caribbean (4.3%), Asia Pacific (4.1%), Europe (2.7%) and North America (2.0%). World RPKs will reach 19 trillion by 2045.
If one were to take into account RPK share by the end of 2045, Asia Pacific + China is in the lead with 40% while Europe + North America follow with 37%. Most of the new jet deliveries will go to North America (2,670 - 31%), and Europe/CIS (1,870 - 22%). China (1,470 - 17%), Asia Pacific (1,050 - 13%), Latin America (740 - 9%), Africa (370 - 4%) and Middle East (330 - 4%) follow.
"The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centres," says Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation. A shift in consumer preferences, particularly in tourism, is driving a need for greater airline network connectivity to smaller markets with sub-150-seat aircraft.
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