The global in-service commercial aircraft fleet will grow from 34,689 in 2026 to 45,109 in 2035, according to Aviation Week’s 2026 Fleet & MRO Forecast.
The North American market will take delivery of over 4,500 commercial aircraft over the coming decade, as per the forecast that was made public on the opening day of Aviation Week by Informa's MRO Americas 2026 in Orlando. Fleet growth over the decade in North America will be slow - at 0.8% CAGR - compared to the global fleet that is expected to grow at 3% CAGR.
Seat counts globally will grow at 4.6 % CAGR during the same period while for North America, the growth will be at 3.2% CAGR. While the number of freighters will decrease, cargo volume will grow at 3.2% CAGR, the forecast says.
Aircraft retirements, which were abnormally low in the 2021-2025 period, will increase to about 10,000 retirements during the forecast period, with North America accounting for 4,000 of those. As many as 21,000 new aircraft deliveries are expected in the 2026-2035 period; 4,600 new aircraft will operate in North America. Over 2,000 annual deliveries are expected from 2029. The narrowbody share of the new deliveries will be 75% vs 18 % share for widebodies.
The order backlog, as on March 31 this year, is 17,800 aircraft. Narrowbodies account for 76 % of the backlog while widebody jets are 16 %. Asia is set to receive 40 % of global aircraft backlogs.
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