Tough times: A full recovery from the ongoing pandemic will take at least three years, according to Boeing's new outlook.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the effect it has had on the aviation industry and aircraft sales have forced Boeing to cut its 10-year forecast for new aircraft demand. It will take about three years for air travel to return to pre-pandemic levels, the company says.
Boeing now projects demand for 18,350 planes commercial planes worth $2.9 trillion over the next 10 years, an 11% drop from its forecast a year ago. The company’s 20-year forecast is for the delivery of 43,110 new aircraft through 2039. The company had in 20198 forecast the delivery of 44,040 planes by 2038. Increasing air travel in Asia will be the main driver of demand for new aircraft, it added.
Although airlines globally have begun to recover from a greater than 90% decline in passenger traffic and revenue due to the pandemic, a full recovery will take years, according to the outlook. “While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its disruption to our industry, we believe that aerospace and defense will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability and emerge with strength,” said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen.
There will be a surge in demand for single-aisle or narrowbody planes, according to the outlook. The near-term demand for widebody aircraft will be weak as international travel on many routes has yet to resume.
Both Boeing and Airbus have seen carriers either delay or cancel orders due to the fall in air travel because of COVID-19. The pandemic was the second blow in succession for Boeing as the company was already struggling because of the continued grounding of the 737 Max, after two deadly crashes.
Boeing predicts that worldwide demand for military planes, drones, satellites and other products will be $2.6 trillion over the next decade, nearly matching the airliner market. The company is hoping that its defense and space business will help it overcome the greatest financial crisis it has seen in many decades.
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