Shifting Tides: Indonesia remains an important emerging defence market

Indonesia's defence equipment procurement programs have seen a boost, since Prabowo Subianto began serving as the Indonesian Minister of Defence in 2019. With his ambitious plans to modernize Indonesia's military forces by 2024, Prabowo aims to increase the strength and capabilities of the TNI in order to vastly improve its ability to safeguard Indonesia's territory and interests in the region. At the beginning of his tenure, Prabowo made a series of visits abroad including to the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and several other countries. As a result of this series of visits, Indonesia signed several agreements for defence cooperation and the purchase of defence equipment in large quantities, ranging from combat and military transport aircraft to warships, armored fighting vehicles, and so on.

This still does not include a few ongoing defence agreements and contracts with other countries from the work of the previous defence minister, as well as from the Indonesian administration before the current Joko Widodo’s presidency. The joint development of modern fighter aircraft and the purchase of submarines from South Korea, the medium tank project with Turkey, and the planned acquisition of eleven Su-35 fighter aircraft from Russia (which was later dropped) to name a few examples. Given the limited availability of funds in the Indonesian defence budget, it is now clear that of all the ongoing and planned defence programs, some will need to be changed, postponed, and even canceled. This is especially concerning even though Prabowo has announced a defence financing requirement of USD125 billion in June 2021. Considering that Indonesia's previous defence modernization effort was divided into three medium-term five-year programs (or the so-called Minimum Essential Force/MEF), this long-term plan combines the MEF’s third phase (2020-2024) into the next four phases which have yet to be officially named.

Therefore, although the total defence budget that was proposed really sounded spectacular, in practice it will be split into five parts for the next 25 years which translates into a modest increase in the Indonesian defence allocation overall. After all that has been explained above, how will the defence cooperation and procurement programs between Indonesia and other countries continue? Below are some of the most notable Indonesian defence deals which hopefully can provide insight into this matter.

Future Partner
The wish of the Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) to acquire and operate fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighters ended with disappointment after the United States (US) refused to allow the aircraft to be sold to Indonesia. In return, the US offered the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet as well as the latest variant of the F-15E Strike Eagle, dubbed F-15EX Eagle II. Earlier this year, the US State Department approved a potential sale of up to 36 F-15IDs, the Indonesian version of the F-15EX Eagle II, which amounted to about USD13.6 billion in total. The news was quite surprising for the Indonesian defence enthusiast community, not only due to the cost and the amount of aircraft offered for sale but also because they did not really expect the US is willing to offer the most advanced F-15E variant to Indonesia.

For the past two decades, Indonesia has been trying to reduce its dependency on Western countries regarding defence procurement. Especially for TNI-AU, this has resulted in the acquisition of Russian-made Su-27/Su-30 multirole fighters which have become the service’s most capable and best-performing fighter aircraft type. The TNI-AU even had a plan to acquire eleven Su-35 to further build and strengthen its main combat aircraft, consisting of a mix between US-made F-16s and Russian-made Su-27/30/35 jets.

However, the risk of sanctions in the form of the US federal law signed by Trump’s administration in 2017 has made TNI-AU reconsider its plan and then cancel the Su-35 contract in December 2021. This was likely a good decision in hindsight, especially after the somewhat lackluster performance shown by the Su-35 in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started in February this year also reflects badly on Russia’s global reputation which will undoubtedly also affect Indonesia if the country is still insisting on the Su-35 procurement plan.

Still, questions remain about how Indonesia will finance the acquisition of the F-15ID including how many will be bought. While there are yet any official announcements from the Indonesian Ministry of Defence or TNI-AU regarding this matter, it is likely that Indonesia will only be able to acquire less than half of the approved numbers at most.

Strong Partnership
The signing of a contract with France in February 2022 to acquire the first six aircraft (with the funding for 12 more that was just recently allocated) of the agreed 42 Rafale F3 jet fighters signaled that this time, the French are coming back with force. TNI-AU can now expect the delivery of the first two batches of 18 Rafale jet fighters to be realized starting in 2026. Although France has already been active in the Indonesian Army (TNI-AD) procurement program before with the delivery of 55 CAESAR 155mm Self-Propelled Howitzers (SPH) between 2012 and 2017, as well as Mistral short-range anti-aircraft missile systems for both TNI-AD and TNI-AL, the recent agreements and deals are not only about combat aircraft for TNI-AU but also include at least two Scorpene-class submarines, and possibly two Gowind-class corvettes for TNI-AL.

It doesn’t stop there either. There were also agreements and contracts signed between related French defence companies and their Indonesian state-owned counterparts for the development and manufacture of air surveillance radars, a range of large-caliber ammunition for the ground forces, as well as glide bombs and air-to-ground missiles for the air force. It’s sufficient to say that in just a few short years under Joko Widodo’s administration and with Prabowo Subianto as the current Indonesian Defence Minister, Indonesia has chosen France as one of its main defence equipment suppliers. As such, it can at least be expected that the funding for most - if not all - of the signed contracts will be more seriously allocated if not prioritized.

Emerging Defence Partner
Turkey is a relative newcomer in the Indonesian defence procurement scene. Nevertheless, it made its presence truly felt when it was first revealed in 2015 that both countries are jointly developing a new “Modern Medium Weight Tank (MMWT)”. Two years later, the first prototype of what is now called the “Kaplan” Medium Tank (Kaplan MT) in Turkey, and “Harimau” in Indonesia (both words meaning “Tiger” in English) was introduced in Istanbul. This 35-tonnes tank is mostly developed for the TNI-AD since it requires a new type of “medium-weight” tank to replace its aging AMX-13 light tanks as well as to complement and provide support for its ‘heavy-hitter’ of Leopard 2 MBTs.

At one time, it was even reported that the service is looking to acquire “several hundreds” of this new tank, more than a total number of around 300 AMX-13 tanks in TNI-AD’s inventory. Turkey delivered the first batch of ten Kaplan/Harimau tank hulls to be assembled in Indonesia in March 2022. While it was reported earlier that Indonesia will acquire 18 of these first batches, of which eight will be fully built and assembled in Indonesia’s state-owned production facilities, further progress has yet to be announced in this matter.

Another project involving two countries is the joint production of the ZAHA amphibious armored troop carrier and fighting vehicles. Also known as the “Marine Assault Vehicle” or MAV for short, the vehicle is meant to complement or replace the US-made AAV7 used by the Indonesian Marine Corps to support their amphibious landing operations. As for the TNI-AU, the recent cancelation of the domestic “Elang Hitam” Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) project, may result in the acquisition of Turkish-made, battle-proven combat drones, especially since there had already been some preparation taken to arm the canceled UCAV with Turkish-made precision-guided weapons when the project was still ongoing.