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Yulian Ardiansyah - : Feb 22, 2021 - : 3:56 am

The UAE says the F-35 package is much more than selling military hardware to a partner

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is in the process of modernising its air force and was almost poised to become the first Arab state to acquire the F-35 fighter aircraft from the United States. But the new U.S. administration, led by President Joe Biden, has temporarily put on hold a US$23.37 billion deal to sell 50 F-35 Lightning II jets as well as 18 MQ-9 Reaper drones and munitions to Abu Dhabi.

The UAE has been looking to upgrade its ageing fleet since it pulled the plug on a Typhoon Eurofighter deal with the U.K. Government, and failed to finalise a proposal to buy French fighter, the Rafale. “Generally speaking when it comes to arms sales, it is typical at the start of an administration to review any – any pending sales, to make sure that what is being considered is something that advances our strategic objectives and advances our foreign policy. So that’s – that’s what we’re doing at this moment,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at his first press conference late January.

On the Frontline

The agreement to sell 50 F-35A fighters worth US$10.4 billion, 18 MQ-9B drones worth US$2.97 billion, and US$10 billion worth of air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions was one of the final acts of the Trump administration, occurring just an hour before President Joe Biden was inaugurated.

UAE’s Ambassador to the U.S., Yousef Al Otaiba reacting to the Biden government’s decision stated that: “AS IN PREVIOUS TRANSITIONS, THE UAE ANTICIPATED A REVIEW OF CURRENT POLICIES BY THE NEW ADMINISTRATION.” “SPECIFICALLY, THE F-35 PACKAGE IS MUCH MORE THAN SELLING MILITARY HARDWARE TO A PARTNER. LIKE THE US, IT ALLOWS THE UAE TO MAINTAIN A STRONG DETERRENT TO AGGRESSION. IN PARALLEL WITH NEW DIALOGUE AND SECURITY COOPERATION, IT HELPS TO REASSURE REGIONAL PARTNERS. IT ALSO ENABLES THE UAE TO TAKE ON MORE OF THE REGIONAL BURDEN FOR COLLECTIVE SECURITY, FREEING US ASSETS FOR OTHER GLOBAL CHALLENGES, A LONG-TIME BIPARTISAN US PRIORITY.” 

“The UAE has always fought alongside the US. And through hundreds of joint missions and participation in six US-led Coalition efforts, we have learned that the key to military coordination is interoperability. With the same equipment and training, US and UAE forces are more effective together when and where it matters,” the Ambassador, who lobbied hard for the deal, said. He also said that the UAE will work closely with the Biden administration on a comprehensive approach to Middle East peace and stability. For UAE, the F-35 meant “frontline defence”.

The UAE’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash had said recently: “Our existing F-16 jets are now almost two decades old, and it is time to renew them…We ought to get them (the F-35 fighters). The first time we made this request was six years ago.”  On December 9 the U.S. Senate endorsed the former Trump administration’s last-minute effort to sell the arms package to the Emirati military. The UAE, however, hopes to get its wish fulfilled ahead of the 50th anniversary of the country’s independence this year.  “The UAE’s desire to acquire the F-35 is coherent with the state’s militarized nationalism and its track record of high-tech armament acquisitions for international branding purposes, in addition to building national pride:” according to Dr. Emma Soubrier, a visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

Air Power Upgrade

According to military observers, the United Arab Emirates Air Force (UAEAF) operates a fleet of over 60 Dassault Mirage 2000s and about 80 modernised Lockheed F-16E/F Desert Falcons. “Air power development has always been a priority for the Gulf Arab states and is increasingly evolving in line with two key ambitions: power projection and economic diversification. The new regional context since 2011 has presented challenges and opportunities for the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia and indeed pushed them to become increasingly active and assertive on the Middle Eastern stage, including by deploying armed forces abroad:” Dr. Soubrier noted.

“THERE IS INDEED VALUE FOR ABU DHABI IN BEING ABLE TO CLAIM THAT THE UAE COULD BE THE FIRST MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRY, OTHER THAN ISRAEL, TO BE CONSIDERED A SUFFICIENTLY RELIABLE AND CREDIBLE MILITARY PARTNER BY THE UNITED STATES TO BE ALLOWED TO PURCHASE THE COVETED F-35:” Dr. Soubrier. 

The proposed deal was made possible after the UAE and Israel announced on August 13, 2020 that they would normalize relations, and particularly since they signed the Abraham Accords. Also, after the U.S. assured to maintain Israel’s technological superiority in arms over its neighbours.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement saying that Israel would not oppose the sale of “certain weapons” system to the UAE so long as the sales are “anchored in an agreement with the United States which upgrades Israel’s qualitative military edge and guarantees its superiority in the Middle East for the coming decades.” While announcing the proposed sale on November 10, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also had assured the Israeli administration that the proposed sale “will make the UAE even more capable and interoperable with U.S. partners in a manner fully consistent with America’s longstanding commitment to ensuring Israel’s qualitative military edge.”

Because of the qualitative military edge restriction, the Lockheed Martin-made F-35 was so far denied to Arab states, while Israel has 25 of these aircraft and, under several deals with the U.S., is expected to receive 50 jets through 2024. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also expressed interest in these aircraft. Turkey had been a partner in developing the F-35 but was expelled from the programme after concerns relating to Ankara’s history as a client of Russia for acquiring the S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile system. The F-35 is an upgrade to the US-supplied F-16 that President Bill Clinton first approved for sale to the UAE in 2000. The UAE has deployed the F-16 in support of multiple US-led counterterrorism, freedom of navigation, and stabilisation missions in Afghanistan, Syria and around the Arabian Gulf and Peninsula. 

Power Dynamics

From the perspective of the U.S., a F-35 deal with the UAE presents opportunities in deterring Iran’s more aggressive military posture in the Persian Gulf since Washington unilaterally withdrew from the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. As Pompeo said: “This (the proposed deal) is in recognition of our deepening relationship and the UAE’s need for advanced defence capabilities to deter and defend itself against heightened threats from Iran.” The US intelligence community estimates that Tehran’s missiles are likely to keep growing in both power and technical sophistication, thus creating new strategic challenges for the UAE, the U.S., Israel and other partners. 

“The Emirati Air Force is the most combat-ready air component in the Middle East, with exceptional aircraft own by combat-experienced pilots who maintain their skills together with US Air Force elements at Al Dhafra’s challenging Gulf Air Warfare Training Center. When I was the Commander of US Central Command, I assessed that, if necessary, the Emirati Air Force could more than take on the Iranian Air Force if augmented with AWACS and air refuelling. I maintain that assessment, and the addition of F-35s will help the UAE maintain its capability relative to that of Iran.  Given that, and given Israel’s support for Emirati acquisition of the F-35, U.S. approval of that purchase is both advisable and timely:” General David Petraeus US Army (Retd.), former Commander of the Surge in Iraq, US Central Command.

However, the sale of the F-35 to the UAE is not sans its controversy. The air power procurement in the Gulf will have notable impacts on the global arms trade and the power dynamics associated with it. The proposed sale of F-35 is likely to upset the balance of power and provoke an arms race in a volatile region.   In fact, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency had notified that “the proposed sale of this equipment and support represents a significant increase in capability and will alter the regional military balance.”

With Washington warning that Iran could buy high-end non-stealth fighters such as Russia’s Su-30SM and China’s J-10, and Tehran’s interest in Russia’s S-400 air-defence system, there could be a spur in regional demand for the stealth fighter jet. “What we risk doing here is fueling an arms race. Today we may be selling the F-35s and the MQ-9s to the UAE, but the Saudis are going to want it, the Qataris have already requested it, and it just fuels Iran’s interest in continuing to build up its own military programming:” Democrat Senator Chris Murphy, who opposed the Trump administration’s proposed arms sales to the UAE, said.

 The UAE’s alleged war crimes in Libya, as well as its oversight of torture facilities in Yemen, have raised ethical challenges to the proposed deal and international human rights groups have called for a halt to the planned sale. “The United States must resolutely refrain from supplying weapons that could be used in the conflict and not transfer weaponry to the UAE, or risk complicity in likely war crimes in Yemen,” Philippe Nassif, the advocacy director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International USA, has warned. The country’s tightening relationship with Russia and China has provided further grounds for criticism, as critics drew a parallel with Turkey.

Pompeo has been sued by an independent New York policy research group seeking to block the deal. The New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs (NYCFPA) said in a complaint in federal court in Washington that Pompeo, who led the State Department’s authorization of government-to-government arms sales, “rushed” the deal without proper oversight or justification. 

Other Considerations

“The UAE’s evident relations with China and Russia will put our military intelligence advantage at risk if such a deal is approved. There is no guarantee or provision that prevents them from sharing this proprietary knowledge. Before such advancement of weaponry to the UAE, the American people must be confident that we can trust countries like the UAE not to cause unrest in the region,” the group said in its complaint. Justin Russell, the NYCFPA’s principal director, said: “With this deal going forward, the U.S. is setting a baseline for a very dangerous proliferation of weapons in the region and is enabling an arms race to start in the Middle East.”  Russell added: “NYCFPA also calls on the incoming Biden administration to reconsider this deal for the benefit of peace in the region.”

But former Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs R. Clarke Cooper said the effect of the sale on humanitarian crisis in the region was an ongoing consideration but noted that the UAE “have proved themselves over and over again,” to be a “partner that we could count on.” “The United States definitely takes these obligations seriously. We expect all of the recipients of U.S. defence equipment, to abide by terms of the letters of offer and acceptance, which again goes back to not just end-use, but also the protection of the technology and making sure that the equipment is not transferred, at least without our awareness or clearance, to third parties without our authorization,” Cooper added.

Ambassador Otaiba also pointed out: “The UAE has purchased and operated some of the most advanced U.S. defence systems including F-16s, Patriot and THAAD. The U.S. Air Force F-35 squadrons are based in the UAE. The UAE has never compromised or shared this technology with an adversary or without U.S. knowledge and approval.” As a result of these numerous concerns, four bipartisan resolutions of disapproval were submitted before the Senate. Two of these were put to the floor on December 9 but votes fell short, notably failing to block the possible F-35 sale. 

Putting arms sales to the Gulf Arab states under additional scrutiny was one of the stated priorities of the Biden team. During Biden’s campaign, Blinken had expressed concerns about the commitments that the Trump administration made as part of a deal to sell F-35 fighter jets to the UAE. There remains the question of what the Joe Biden administration can or wishes to do with regard to this arms sale. While a review raises the potential of stricter U.S. controls over the use and deployment of the advanced weapons systems, the Biden administration has yet to signal that it has any plans to reverse the UAE-U.S. arms deal. 

“This could be a sign that the Biden administration could at least increase scrutiny on future arms sales to the UAE. It is also almost certain that the joint resolutions of disapproval, even as they did not pass, sent a message to the incoming administration in that regard. However, I am not sure the new president would go as far as suspending a F-35 that would already have been inked,” Dr. Soubrier commented.

Wishing to appease Tehran and open a new chapter in regional security is clearly on the new administration’s mind.  “However, this also does not mean they would want to block the F-35 deal, as it would not necessarily be taken as a credible threat by Tehran:” she argued. The announced freeze should not, however, be interpreted as too dramatic a shift – the move was qualified by officials as a “routine administrative action typical to most any transition.”  In the case of the F-35 deal, for example, the main issue put forward by then-campaign advisor Blinken was the necessity to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge.  “Given that Tel Aviv already made clear that it would not object to the deal, this pause will likely be short lived, and there will be a return to the regular process – which is extremely slow anyway,” Dr. Soubrier noted.

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