The Real Story Will Lie Beyond the Numbers

Arun Sivasankaran - : Jul 21, 2024 - : 5:13 am

With Boeing choosing not to bring any of its signature jets to the Show, Airbus has the battle for the eyeballs already won, but the jet orders tussle involving the two aerospace giants will generate plenty of excitement and headlines....

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Geopolitical conflicts and an industry in flux combine to throw up interesting storylines. Sustainability, aviation's struggle to find young talent, air and missile defence systems, sixth-generation combat air systems, persisting supply chain issues faced by companies in the aerospace and defence sectors, and the progress made by the fledgling advanced air mobility (AAM) industry are among the issues that are expected to dominate discussions, not necessarily in that order, at the year's largest and most significant airshow.

While Boeing ended the previous edition of the Farnborough Airshow with a lot more orders than its rival, the tables were turned at the Paris Airshow last year, when Airbus won the single largest aircraft order in history – IndiGo’s order for 500 A320neo family jets - and left its traditional rival far behind. Indian carriers won’t make much noise this time around, but with carriers such as Korean Air, Turkish Airlines, and Qatar Airways all looking to acquire new aircraft, aviation data, intelligence and advisory company IBA is forecasting a total of around 1,000 aircraft orders during the five-day biennial event.

The Ukraine war has had a ripple effect on the buying plans of militaries the world over and pushed defence budgets up. With demand for drones on the rise, military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufacturers will be hoping to make an impression. Expect the noise around counter-UAS systems to grow as well.

Airbus Defence and Space has brought to the show its Wingman drone concept as an example of a collaborative combat aircraft (CAA) that is expected to assist fighter jets or bigger military drones in combat situations. A perfect example of the trend away from manned assets toward drones is that of the U.S. Air Force now having second thoughts about its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) aircraft, a sixth-generation fighter plane planned to replace the F-22. It won’t be a surprise if makers of attritable drones get a lot of attention during the course of the show.

Keen to demonstrate progress towards certification, a number of eVTOL companies are at the show, with Hyundai company Supernal and Boeing subsidiary Wisk bringing their full eVTOL aircraft mock-up. Lilium and Joby Aviation are also showcasing models of their vehicles. On the eve of the show, Brazil’s Eve Air Mobility unveiled the aircraft being built at the Embraer test facility of Gaviao Peixoto, Sao Paulo State, besides naming Diehl Aviation as the designer and producer of interior and ASE as the supplier for the power distribution system for it eVTOL. The Global Urban & Advanced Air Summit that is being organized as part of the event is expected to showcase the increased collaboration that has been happening in recent months between industry players, regulators, and investors.

With the aviation industry waking up to the need to make serious progress towards its ambitious goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, sustainability will generate headlines at this edition of the show. As the number of airlines using SAF for their operations have gone up significantly, there will be discussions centred on ways to scale up the production of SAF and ways to overcome feedstock constraints.

The use of hydrogen as a fuel presents exciting possibilities, but the recent shutdown of startup Universal Hydrogen, which had the backing of companies such as American Airlines, Airbus Ventures, GE Aerospace, Toyota Ventures and JetBlue Ventures, is proof that the path ahead is littered with challenges, financial and otherwise. Do not be surprised to see ZeroAvia, which is at the show highlighting its hydrogen powerplant retrofit technology for the regional airliner market, getting its share of the limelight.

The event is taking place in the backdrop of UK’s new Labour government assuming power and announcing a Strategic Defence Review that is to be completed within a year. A key element of country’s future offensive capabilities is the future combat air system (FCAS) programme; Tempest, a sixth-generation combat aircraft being developed for the UK Royal Air Force (RAF) under the FCAS programme, is planning for a flying demonstrator in 2027 and to have the fighter operational by 2035. An update on the program is likely over the next few days.

With space officially a war domain, the event’s Space Zone, sponsored by the UK Space Agency and Lockheed Martin, will be closely watched, more so because of the upcoming first vertical space launch from SaxaVord in Scotland later this year. Global space market trends and international collaboration within space will be among the topic discussed during the event.