With airframers not able to meet production targets this year and unlikely to do so in the next two years as well, not many commercial aerospace leaders believe that a new generation single isle (NGSA) aircraft is happening anytime soon.
A recent McKinsey & Company – Aviation Week survey of over 135 commercial aerospace leaders reveals that the majority aren’t sure there is a business case for a NGSA. Most of those who responded to the survey cited development costs – up to US$25b or a ~10-12-year payback – as the major stumbling block for the chances of a new NGSA. The other major risk to the NGSA business case is technical feasibility, they added.
Nor is there much enthusiasm for a new aircraft, with the industry’s R&D behaviour making it obvious that NGSA isn’t a top priority. Over and 85% of respondents said they were allocating less than 20% of their R&D budgets to NGSA-related technologies this year. According to the report that was published during the ongoing Paris Air Show, more than half of those surveyed said they had moderate to no understanding of the technologies needed to support NGSA.
The survey respondents included representatives of airframe and engine OEMs, suppliers, MROs, operators, and lessors. The results of this year’s survey, which indicates that the once ambitious timeline NSGA is stagnating, contrast with that of 2024 when 84% of respondents predicted that a NGSA aircraft would be fielded by 2035 or before.
Across the value chain, the timeline for the expected entry into service (EIS) of NGSA has shifted to the right by 3-4 years on average, the new survey finds. Over one-third of the respondents do not expect EIS before 2034. The view of engine OEMs has shifted the most to the right - 8 years on average. Most of them expect NGSA EIS only in 2040 or later.
The industry’s net zero ambitions alone will not be enough to support the business case for an NGSA, says the report. Industry players will be faced with significant strategic choices as the timeline for NGSA shifts towards 2040 or beyond. The near-term focus of the industry and the supply chain should be on transitioning from legacy aircraft to a fleet dominated by today’s “next gen” (MAX, neo) and strengthening positions for the long haul on these programs, it adds.
Most of this year’s respondents do not believe OEMs will achieve their current generation production goals. About 81% of those surveyed expressed zero to moderate confidence in the ability of the airframers to achieve production targets for 2026 and 2027. Significant supply chain investments will be needed in current generation production for at least the next two years.
According to current estimates, an evolutionary NGSA will only deliver a 12% increase in fuel efficiency over present narrowbodies. Survey respondents, notably engine OEMs and suppliers, believe that the NGSA’s production cost may be 30% higher. There is a growing recognition across the industry that next generation airliners will cost substantially more than today’s aircraft and feature longer development timelines, the report says. Over one-quarter of aircraft operators said they were willing to defer fleet renewal for a decade or longer if their stated ROI on a new platform could not be met.
Uncertainty persists among industry players about which technologies to invest in for the NGSA, says the report. There is no consensus on the technical direction of NGSA propulsion, with respondents divided almost equally between conventional turbofan, open rotor, and hybrid-electric propulsion. Nearly half of OEMs and suppliers say they expect NGSA propulsion efficiency gains of 10% or less over current platforms, suggesting that engine investment is most likely to center on conventional turbofan technology.
Across the value chain, the timeline for the expected entry into service (EIS) of NGSA has shifted to the right by 3-4 years on average, the survey finds. Over one-third of the respondents do not expect EIS before 2034. The view of engine OEMs has shifted the most to the right - 8 years on average. Most of them expect NGSA EIS only in 2040 or later.
According to the report, the optimistic view would be a modestly ambitious NGSA aircraft entering service mid to late next decade, with a familiar design and moderately improved performance – with enough operators willing to bet that it will differentiate them in the airline market. Alternatively, NGSA could be further delayed, forcing operators to stick with current-generation aircraft even longer.
