Page 8 - AAA JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2018 Online Magazine
P. 8
That translates to an estimated need for
16,050 new airplanes valued at US$2.5
trillion. Boeing says The LCC market, for
example, is helping grow the need for
11,840 new single-aisle airplanes, with
the majority in the 737 MAX 8 seat-size
category it claims. In the widebody seg-
ment Boeing says the regional need is for
3,620 new widebody airplanes by 2036.
And cargo will grow at 4.7 percent per year OAG Concerns
and account for need 320 new production OAG raises concerns about China’s capacity to handle
freighters and 630 converted freighters.
the projected growth in its recent report ‘The Adolescent
China Rolls On Growing Pains and Market Maturity’.
learly China is the “super” market OAG’s John Grant says that “there are signs of an impending
of the region and the dynamics infrastructure issue that may impact that optimism [growth].
may hold the key to the future of “Scheduled airline capacity from China, including the vast
Cthe A380. Airbus rightly points domestic network, is now just under 700 million, reflecting
out that by “2030 Shanghai, Beijing and a near 60 per cent increase in capacity in the last five years.
Guangzhou will be firmly placed in the Per annum increases of near 9 per cent have been the norm
world’s top 10 cities as measured by GDP. over this period as a mix of new aircraft deliveries, major
Already major hubs, with Beijing for exam- expansion plans of locally-based airlines and increasing con-
ple handling 8.1 million passengers per sumer desire to travel have heated the market,” says Grant.
month compared to Dubai at 7.0 million “Headline analysis would suggest that China will continue to
with over 90 per cent coming from origin grow at rates consistent with the anticipated aircraft demand,
and destination traffic.“In the future, there but deeper analysis of capacity growth at the four largest
is potential for these airports to become airports in China, highlights that capacity has not grown rap-
“super hubs” as they develop a greater idly in either Beijing or Shanghai in the last year whilst the
share of transit traffic to more efficiently number of scheduled departures from the four airports has
connect China to the rest of the world,” only grown by 1.2 per cent year on year.”
says Airbus.And there is no doubt Chinese “The significant slow-down in capacity growth at the sizeable
airlines have global network aspirations that Chinese airports reflects a major challenge currently facing
would feed that transit traffic. And domes- airports and airlines around on-time performance (OTP).
tic China will become the largest traffic flow With airspace controlled and protected for military require-
with 1.6 billion passengers before the end ments as necessary, airlines have struggled to deliver globally
of the forecast period (2036) with traffic acceptable levels of punctuality for many years in China and
forecast to almost quadruple, while domes- the latest twelve months’ data gathered by OAG suggest that
tic USA traffic will double but off a high the issue is far from being resolved,”
base. Another powerhouse of course is says Grant.
India with Airbus predicting that its domes- The OTP performance at the four major airports in China for
tic passenger numbers will grow almost the last year highlights an alarming deterioration in punctu-
6-fold to be the same level as US domes- ality from March onwards, with OTP levels falling to below
tic in 2017. Also, Airbus says that amongst 40 per cent in June says the OAG report. Interestingly,
the Top 20 traffic flows, 50 per cent will says the report the international OTP, whilst also impacted
involve Asia-Pacific and 25 per cent will appears to have been “protected” to a degree, suggesting a
involve the Middle East. In terms of origin conscious decision to preserve those longer and more pres-
and destination passengers, almost 1.6 tigious services at the expense of local requirements. Grant
billion passengers are expected to travel adds that reduced access to air space and its subsequent
within China in 2036, almost four times the impact on OTP is an issue and “poses the key question of
number of passengers that travelled by air whether the current infrastructure can accommodate future
in 2016.
8 | January/February 2018 www.GBP.com.sg/AAA
