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to return to their previous flying capacity as curves at aircraft or even component level. But getting a deeper
international travel continues to feel the effects understanding and predictions require operational knowledge of
of the pandemic. But some forward-looking air- historical maintenance cycles and impacting factors. This is where
lines decided pivot their focus during the height airlines or MROs need to make sure they can extract, store and
of the pandemic and make the transition from analyse this data from their supporting software. This data allows
commercial to cargo operations—distributing AI and machine learning to create a much more reliable picture
PPE and other essential equipment across the of what really leads to failures and how Minimum Equipment List
globe. This has been known in the industry as (MEL) can lead to AOGs. I see a rise in commercial airlines and
the rise of the preighter aircraft. MROs turning to AI and ML technology to improve their predictive
Modifying passenger aircraft for light analytics and maintenance capabilities.
freighting is no easy undertaking, and again
the flexibility shown by some airlines has been Sustainability Will Get Serious
remarkable to open this new revenue stream Sustainability is an ever-increasing issue within the commercial
and keep commercial jets from being parked— aviation industry as customers become even more aware of the
Emirates, LATAM and Lufthansa among other environmental impact of flying. Many climate activists’ groups have
airlines have all taken on the challenge. expressed fears that due to the financial impact of the coronavirus
crisis, corporations, including commercial airlines, will abandon
As the true impact the pandemic has had on sustainability and emission reduction commitments. But the finan-
the industry begins to be ascertained, I forecast cial impact the pandemic has had on the industry, as well as the
that more and more airlines will transition their complete shut-down of operations for many airlines, has made
commercial planes into cargo to explore an more sustainable processes come into focus—the complete restart
avenue in commercial aviation that is still very of the aviation industry is predicted to be based on a much more
lucrative—and some airlines are continuing to sustainable model.
modify planes for cargo use despite coronavi- The IATA has outlined that, despite COVID-19, it is continuing
rus easing in some areas of the world. its programme to slash CO2 emission by half in the next three
As with the parking of aircraft however, if the decades. Some of the industry’s leading OEMs, commercial airlines
preighter trend reverses, there will be a need and MRO players are also seriously committed to reaching the aim
to quickly re-convert these aircraft to meet of being Net Zero by 2050 and continues to invest in – and use
passenger demand—and that is achieved with – SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and are calling for government
software designed to track and manage every support for this.
aircraft right down to the component level,
whatever its purpose. Rolls Royce is introducing a new service plan to make engines
easier to maintain and therefore more sustainable: repair, don’t
AI and ML Help Airlines scrap. They’re using new technology, such as snake robots, to
Delays are costly and with the financial impact access parts of the engine that have previously been not possible
of the pandemic weighing heavy on commercial to repair due to their location in the engine. Research into electric
carriers and MROs alike, mitigating this cost aircraft, as well as the development of the Aviation Carbon Offsets
will be a goal for the industry. Customer trust trading platform, also demonstrate the industry’s commitment to
is already at a low, so airlines and their MRO becoming more sustainable.
partners will want to help protect this as they I predict this will gain pace as the industry recovers and being
return aircraft to service and welcome pas- able to extract the data which shows the environmental footprint
sengers back. of operations on a fleet-wide basis will be a necessity.
Data from IFS Maintenix users over the last
5 years shows that 45% of all parts removals Future Proofing
were unexpected—the industry is in desperate In summary, although the development areas for the coming year
need of more intelligent predictions for mainte- in the sector appear to be very different, adaptability and flexibility
nance on AOG faults, remaining operating life remain at the heart of all of them. Commercial carriers and MROs
and repetitive defects. And due to the shut- need to adapt to the new market environment and pivot to the
down, airlines will want to keep costly Aircraft lucrative areas of business.
on Ground (AOG) repairs to a minimum—IFS
Maintenix data shows a machine learning This means focusing on future proofing and streamlining their
approach to aircraft analytics can lead to a business processes. As the industry moves to recovery in 2021,
30% increase in uptime. investing in technology to streamline processes and improve pro-
duction – as well as embracing sustainable developments and
Those A&D organisations who had already initiatives in the industry – will put airlines in a good position to hit
invested in AI and machine learning reported the recovery trail in 2021 and set themselves up for success in the
the pandemic had less of an impact on their years to come.
operations, as machine learning (ML) models This is not the end for air travel—but the future will strike a different
can predict unplanned events or survival normal. Airlines and their supporting software need to be up to it.

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