Page 26 - AAA JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2022 Online Magazine

regions. North America, Asia Pacific, and the
Middle East are likely to see the largest short-
ages, with North America expected to face a
shortage of over 12,000 pilots by 2023. Asia
Pacific, the nerve center of the aviation industry,
projected to be grappling with a shortage of
23,000 pilots by 2029.

“LOOKING AT PAST CRISES
SUCH AS 9/11 AND THE GLOBAL
FINANCIAL CRISIS, NEW PILOT
CERTIFICATIONS FELL 30 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE FIVE YEARS
AFTER THE INITIAL SHOCK. WITH
but 30 percent fewer than in January 2020. Not surprisingly, the THE GLOBAL NATURE OF THIS
growth in business travel has been most pronounced in the U.S. SHOCK, WE BELIEVE 25,000 TO
In January, bizjet traffic was up 19 percent compared to January
2019 when the pandemic hit. As per the WingX report, there is 35,000 CURRENT AND FUTURE
now a perceptible shift toward owned and managed aircraft from PILOTS MAY CHOOSE ALTERNATIVE
charter and fractional operators. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 CAREER PATHS OVER THE NEXT
period, the use of owned aircraft is up 24 percent while there has DECADE,” the Oliver Wyman report, pub-
been an increase of 32 percent in managed aircraft operations.
lished in March last year, noted.
Business aviation is set to continue its strong performance through
the year, according to WingX. “Stronger growth may resume as “The most important question is not whether
Omicron dissipates, although there are increasing risks in the a pilot shortage will reemerge, but when it will
macroeconomic and geopolitical environment which could easily occur and how large the gap will be between
undermine flight demand in the next few months.” supply and demand,” the report added. “Based
on a modest recovery scenario, we believe a
Crisis On the Horizon global pilot shortage will emerge in certain
For carriers around the world that were face-to-face with a debil- regions no later than 2023 and most probably
itating shortage of pilots – 62 percent of flight operations leaders before…Regarding magnitude, in our most likely
who responded to a 2019 Oliver Wyman poll said shortage of scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots
qualified pilots was a key risk – the pandemic turned the situation by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the
on its head. The surplus of pilots however isn’t going to last, and most extreme scenarios.”
not just because demand is going to outstrip supply before 2023,
says the global management consulting firm. Changing With the Times
In the U.S., carriers have started feeling the
A career as a pilot, once considered stable and lucrative, isn’t as pinch. Over the holiday season and even this
safe a bet as it was before the pandemic. Faced with impending year, many regional airlines have been forced
shortage, many airlines had been wooing new pilots by providing to ground hundreds of aircraft as well as
financing and expanding cadet training programs. With aircraft cut and reshuffle routes. Many airlines have
being grounded and revenue drying up, such programs were either already started taking steps to counter the
trimmed or shelved to cut costs. Faced with the realization that crisis. Startup airline Breeze Airways, less
the career isn’t as foolproof as it seemed to be before COVID-19, than eight months old, has already raised the
many pilot candidates are thinking in terms of other careers. With pay for its pilots. In a clear sign that demand
demand retuning in the domestic sector, many of the furloughed is back, regional airlines, often the first stop
pilots have been brought back by airlines, but some have left the for pilots that hope to fly for major carriers,
industry for other safer options. have resumed offering sign-on bonuses to
new hires. The move from a regional airline to
The reasons for the expected shortage vary by region. In China, a major airline has become simpler, with Delta
India, and the rest of the Asia Pacific region where more people are Air Lines no longer insisting that prospective
expected to travel than ever before, supply is struggling to keep up pilots should have a four-year college degree.
with demand. United States, an aging workforce facing mandatory United Airlines has changed it policies too and
retirement and the high cost of pilot training remain obstacles. does not require a bachelor’s degree for its pilot
Another factor that will exacerbate the looming crisis is the forced applicants. Likewise, a degree is not mandatory
early retirements of pilots during the pandemic by carriers in some for a pilot to join American Airlines.

26 January/February 2022 WWW .GBP .COM.SG/ AAA