Page 26 - AAA MARCH - APRIL 2018 Online Magazine

irlines are set to induct new generation aircraft into their Carriers are increasingly showing a preference
fleets with increasing regularity over the next ten years, for larger narrow- body aircraft and this trend
but maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) spending will will be reflected in the global fleet by 2028.
Acontinue to grow at a healthy pace despite the expected Medium-size narrow-body aircraft, such as
longer maintenance intervals for such aircraft. The commercial the 737-8 MAX and A320neo, are forecast
MRO market is expected to grow 48 per cent, from US$77.4 to be the most in demand, and will make up
billion in 2018 to US$114.7 billion in ten years, according to Oliver 53 percent of the category. Also forecast to
Wyman’s Fleet & MRO Forecast 2018-2028. The market will grow increase its share of the total fleet are nar-
at 3.5 percent over the first five years, to reach US$91.9 billion by row-bodies with more than 190 seats. Next
2023, before pick ing up speed over the last five years to grow in line to narrow-bodies, in terms of demand,
at 4.5 percent. will be wide-bodies; the class is expected to
grow at 3.4 percent over the forecast period
Bigger, Younger Fleet to reach 7,400 by 2028. The 787 series is
The active global commercial fleet, which currently stands at forecast to be the most delivered wide-body,
26,307 aircraft, will grow over the next 10 years at a net rate of followed by the A350.
3.3 percent, bringing the number to 37,978. The growth in fleet
size is forecast to grow at the rate of 4.2 percent annually over Inexorable Shift
the first five years, but will then slow down to 3.3 percent in the The combined demand for maintenance,
second five-year term. With more and more in-service aircraft repair, and overhaul (MRO) services in the
being pushed out of service, the average age of the active fleet Asia Pacific, China, and India will be more than
will go down from 11.2 to 10.5 years during the forecast period. Of double that in North America by 2028, as MRO
about 20,700 aircraft deliveries, 44 percent will replace in-service activity continues to shift to these regions mir-
aircraft. roring the significant shift in fleet growth. The
North American MRO market will shrink from
Advantage Narrow-bodies US$19.9 billion in 2018 to $19.4 billion by 2023,
Narrow-body aircraft will be most in demand globally, with the before picking up to US $23.8 billion by 2028,
number of such aircraft forecast to grow at 5.2 percent from about according to the study. Asia will continue to
15,100 aircraft to a little over 25,000. The influx of new aircraft will be the driver of MRO growth, with China fore-
bring the narrow-body fleet age down from 10.4 to 10.1 years and cast to see a 10.6 percent annual increase in
increase its share of the market from 56 percent to 66 percent spending and India forecast to grow at 5.6
over the next ten years. Boeing andAirbus narrow-bodies are percent annually over the period. MRO spend
forecast to continue dominate the market and will account for in the Asia Pacific region is expected to grow
a whopping 92 percent of all narrow-body deliveries in the next at four percent annually.
ten years.

ROSY FUTURE

The commercial MRO market is expected to grow 48 per cent, from US$77.4
billion in 2018 to US$114.7 billion in ten years, with much of the growth in Asia

Arun Sivasankaran

26 | March/April 2018 www.GBP.com.sg/AAA