Page 20 - AAA MARCH - MAY 2022 Online Magazine

aviation workers had either moved out of the industry. The survey, mandatory retirement and the high cost of pilot
which polled nearly 4,000 respondents in the UK and Europe, training remain obstacles. Another factor that
revealed that 38 per cent have moved to an industry outside of will exacerbate the looming crisis is the forced
aviation. The industry has to work hard to retain existing skilled early retirements of pilots during the pandemic
professionals as the industry recovers to pre-pandemic levels, by carriers in some regions. North America,
besides attracting new talent to the field, the report added. Asia Pacific, and the Middle East are likely to
see the largest shortages, with North America
Delays, Cancellations expected to face a shortage of over 12,000
The shortage of staff being experienced by carriers and airports pilots by 2023. Asia Pacific, the nerve center of
are causing delays and cancellations in all regions. As per airline the aviation industry, projected to be grappling
tracking website FlightAware.com, about a quarter of U.S. flights with a shortage of 23,000 pilots by 2029.
were experiencing delays in April while overall flight capacity had
returned to within 16 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. Staff short- “Looking at past crises such as 9/11 and the
ages are still hurting some airlines, forcing the carriers to trim their global financial crisis, new pilot certifications
flight schedules. Among the airlines doing that is JetBlue, which saw fell 30 to 40 per cent during the five years after
more canceled flights from April 8 to April 17 than any other airline. the initial shock. With the global nature of this
The New York City-based airline cited a “challenging staffing situ- shock, we believe 25,000 to 35,000 current
ation” for the canceled flights and has also announced additional and future pilots may choose alternative career
cuts to its summer schedule due to the crew shortage it faces. paths over the next decade,” the Oliver Wyman
report, published in March last year, noted.

“THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION
IS NOT WHETHER A PILOT
SHORTAGE WILL REEMERGE, BUT
WHEN IT WILL OCCUR AND HOW
LARGE THE GAP WILL BE BETWEEN
SUPPLY AND DEMAND,” THE
REPORT ADDED. “BASED ON A
MODEST RECOVERY SCENARIO,
WE BELIEVE A GLOBAL PILOT
SHORTAGE WILL EMERGE IN
CERTAIN REGIONS NO LATER
In addition to delays and cancellations, travelers have also had to THAN 2023 AND MOST PROBABLY
contend with higher fares as air traffic picks up. In the U.S., the aver-
age price of a domestic airfare in April was US$330 per round trip, BEFORE…REGARDING MAGNITUDE,
a seven per cent increase over the same period in 2019, according IN OUR MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS,
to the flight booking site Hopper. The increase has been caused THERE IS A GLOBAL GAP OF 34,000
by a combination of crippling staff shortage and increase in fuel PILOTS BY 2025. THIS COULD BE
prices. In April this year, fuel prices were up 158 per cent from 2021
levels, having soared 30 per cent in just a month to about US$153 AS HIGH AS 50,000 IN THE MOST
a barrel, according to the International Air Transport Association. EXTREME SCENARIOS.”

Pilot Shortage The Asia Pacific Problem
In 2019, 62 per cent of flight operations leaders who responded The pandemic has hurt airports as much as car-
to an Oliver Wyman poll said shortage of qualified pilots was a riers. Globally, airports lost more than US$83.1
key risk. During the pandemic and the early days of recovery, that billion in revenues in 2021, according to Airports
was not a worry for airlines. The global management consulting Council International (ACI) World’s ninth quar-
firm says demand is going to outstrip supply before 2023. Many of terly assessment analyzing the economic
the pilots who were furloughed during the pandemic have left the impact of the pandemic. The airport industry
industry for other safer options. Finding new faces will take time was expected to generate more than US$175.8
as many airlines, which had been wooing new pilots by providing billion in revenues in 2022, as per projections
financing and expanding cadet training programs before COVID-19, before the pandemic. However, the report
had either trimmed such programs or shelved them to cut costs. says that airports globally will see a shortfall
In China, India, and the rest of the Asia Pacific region where more of US$60.8 billion by the end of the year, leav-
people are expected to travel than ever before, supply is struggling ing revenues at 72.6 per cent of 2019 levels.
to keep up with demand. In the U.S., an aging workforce facing While all regions are expected to reach more

20 March_May 2022 WWW .GBP .COM.SG/ AAA