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2022, Airbus forecasts the world freighter fleet will reach 3,074
aircraft by 2041 from 2,030 in 2020. Airbus says that 69 per
cent of the 2020 fleet will be replaced by new-build or converted
freighters, with 1,040 needed to cope with the growth in demand.
According to Boeing’s Tim Myers demand for air cargo can only
continue to grow. “Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook projects
an 80 per cent growth in the cargo fleet over the next 20 years,”
he says. “We saw this in 2021 with the highest orders we have
ever seen for our cargo aircraft. We sold 84 new production
freighters. We sold 100-plus of our Boeing Converted Freighter.
We started up new freighter conversion lines to meet demand. We
have continued to see demand in 2022, maybe not as strong as
what we saw in 2021, but we saw orders for the 777X freighter.”

Myers continues to believe that the cargo market will remain
strong. The air cargo market grew by 18.8 per cent in 2021 and
with 65.6 million cargo tonnes transported, air cargo commanded
some 40 per cent of total airline revenue in 2021 compared to
its zero COVID policy is stabilizing produc- the pre-pandemic range of between 10 per cent-15 per cent.
tion conditions in air cargo’s largest source Growth cooled in 2022 dropping to 8 per cent below 2021 levels
market. That will give a much-needed demand with 60.3 million tonnes transported and a 28 per cent share of
boost as companies increase their engage- total airline revenue.
ment with China,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s
Director General. WAR EFFECTS
According to industry experts, the air cargo According to KPMG, Cargo traffic has been impacted by the global
sector will have an increased capacity in 2023 economic slowdown in global GDP and there is a consensus
with the recovery of the belly space of pas- that the boom in export orders seen in 2021 has now stabilized.
senger flights. This could also lead to a drop Sanctions against Russia, the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-
in freight rates. To quote Judah Levine from COVID policy all helped to suppress cargo traffic added to which
Freightos, “Rates will likely recede closer to the shipping capacity has repaired over the course of 2022 while
pre-pandemic levels, though fuel prices and belly capacity has been steadily growing cannibalizing some of
labour costs may combine to put upward the dedicated cargo traffic. One element in long-term planning
pressure on rates, preventing a fall below is alternative uses for aircraft.
the norm.”
“All of a sudden, cargo has changed from a contribution to fixed
Air cargo provided the salvation for many air- overhead, to virtually the lone source of revenue for many airlines.
lines and aircraft operators throughout the Airlines have started placing their passenger aircraft back into
pandemic, but there are signs the market has service temporarily as quasi freighters, carrying cargo at first
cooled in recent months fueling a debate in on the seats, but more recently removing the seats entirely,”
the industry on whether the market has over- Mark Diamond, Vice President of Strategic Aviation Solutions
heated or the growth in eCommerce will be International (SASI), a global aviation consultancy, said.
permanent and has subsequently created
a more stable industry. Boeing’s World Air
Cargo Freight Delivery Forecast (WAFDF, pub-
lished in 2020), predicted that over the next 20
years, the freighter fleet will grow more than
60 per cent from 2,010 to 3,260 units. There
are 2,430 freighters forecast to be delivered,
with approximately half replacing retiring air-
planes and the remainder expanding the fleet
to meet projected traffic growth. Boeing fore-
casts that more than 60 per cent of deliveries
will be freighter conversions, 72 per cent of
which will be standard-body passenger air-
planes. Of the projected 930 new production
freighters, just over 50 per cent will be in the
medium wide-body freighter category.
In its Global Markets Forecast, published in

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