Page 19 - AAA MARCH - APRIL 2016 Online Magazine

FEATURE IRAN AVIATION

Estimates indicate that 400 new planes need 150-passenger capacity aircraft for Boeing and Airbus in equal numbers.”
could be needed, with Airbus and Boeing international flights,” he said. CAPA said over half of Iran’s in-service
poised to rebuild the fleet. Iran knows it is in the strong position of fleet was with three airlines: Mahan Air
According to CAPA, Iran’s in-service fleet being sought after by aircraft and engine (45 aircraft), Iran Air (35) and Iran Aseman
stands at 215 aircraft in Aug-2015 with its manufacturers, which have the opportunity Airlines (32). “If the projected 80-90 aircraft
airlines’ average fleet age of nearly 25 years to make immediate sales and build long term are distributed around the same proportion
making them some of the oldest. relationships after being shut out of the as the current fleet, the three carriers are
Large aircraft orders are needed to market for so long. looking at approximately 15-20 aircraft each
replace Iran’s ageing aircraft and grow the “Airbus and Boeing were waiting for per year,” it said.
in-service fleet, both of which have been the results of the implementation of the Khodakarami said that before the
difficult to do under sanctions. Iran’s three nuclear agreement to appear in Iran before sanctions were lifted, the country had more
major airlines have average fleet ages of 24- commencing a new chapter of cooperation than 20 million domestic passengers a year
25 years, according to CAPA’s Fleet Database. with us,” he added. and six million international passengers
Iran Air’s 747s average 33 years and the Countries such as France are already planning on Iranian carriers. “We had a growth of 6
carrier operates the world’s oldest passenger to expand mutual ties and also to confer on per cent despite sanctions and now with
747, which was manufactured in Jun-1976. increase in their flights to and from Tehran. the punitive measures lifted, we think it
It also operates a 747 manufactured in Khodakarami said Iran would need 80 will increase to more than 10 per cent for 10
Nov-1981, another of the oldest 747s still in new aircraft a year, or 300 within five years. years.”
service. “Iran will buy a total of 80-90 planes per However, analysts have voiced
“We have an active fleet of only 150 and year from the two aviation giants in the first skepticism about the size and speed of the
the average age is very high,” said Mohammad phase of renovating its air fleet...Iranian renewal, as deliveries will also need to be
Khodakarami, director of Iran’s Civil Aviation airlines will carefully examine all options for matched to the technical capabilities of
Organization. the country’s new aviation fleet purchases Iran’s engineers and pilots.
“Many of the planes are grounded and definitely will not restrict their choices “New technologies and training are
because they need repairs. We need to bring to a single country or aircraft manufacturing needed to meet the requirements of
the average down below 15 years, and we company...We will purchase planes from new-generation aircraft,” said an industry
observer.
Aviation is only one part of the renewed
engagement between Iran and the global
community but represents a significant
opportunity for the companies involved.
And as is to be expected with aviation, the
indirect benefits are multiplied as aviation
growth supports economic growth and
facilitates business, trade and tourism.
Although there may be questions
around exactly how much aviation growth
Iran can achieve in the short term, there is
no doubt the medium and long term story is
compelling given its population of almost 80
million people.
“Much discussion of Iran’s aviation
development has focused on replacing older
aircraft. This is sorely needed. But with the
aggressive fleet induction time frames
given by Iran, it is evident Iran’s airlines
will grow, making up for lost opportunities
while seizing new ones brought on from
economic growth resulting from the lifting of
sanctions,” says CAPA.
There can be no doubt Iran holds much
potential for growth. The question is how
quickly it can realise the opportunity.

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