The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released updated estimates on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, revealing mixed progress towards scaling up its use in the aviation sector.
In 2024, global SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes, double the 0.5 million tonnes produced in 2023. This accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel output. However, these figures fell short of earlier projections of 1.5 million tonnes, primarily due to delays in ramping up SAF production at key facilities in the United States, now expected in 2025. Looking ahead, production is forecast to reach 2.1 million tonnes in 2025, comprising 0.7% of global jet fuel output and 13% of renewable fuel production.
IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh commented on the challenges, stating, “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies, which continue to receive subsidies for fossil fuel exploration and production. Meanwhile, investors in next-generation fuel production appear hesitant, awaiting guarantees of quick profits. But make no mistake—airlines are eager to buy SAF, and there is money to be made for those who embrace the long-term future of decarbonisation.” Walsh also called on governments to redirect subsidies from fossil fuels to strategic incentives for renewable energy production. He emphasised that clear policies are essential to accelerate the transition to SAF.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President of Sustainability and Chief Economist, stressed the importance of viewing SAF production within the broader context of the global energy transition. She remarked, “The airline industry’s decarbonisation must be seen as part of the global energy transition, not compartmentalised as a transport issue. Renewable fuel refineries will benefit the wider economy by producing fuels for multiple industries, with only a minor share being SAF for aviation. Airlines simply want to access their fair share of renewable energy output.”
To achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, IATA estimates that between 3,000 and 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be required. These facilities will also produce renewable diesel and other fuels, with annual investment needs averaging $128 billion over 30 years. This is significantly less than the $280 billion annually invested in wind and solar energy between 2004 and 2022. Walsh underscored the urgency of government action, saying, “Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production. The transition, including SAF, will require less than half the investment needed for scaling up wind and solar power. Redirecting even a portion of fossil fuel subsidies could fund this progress.”
IATA highlighted the potential of co-processing, which uses existing refineries to process up to 5% renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil with minimal investment. Expanding this approach could save $347 billion in capital costs by 2050 by reducing the need for over 260 new renewable fuel plants. Additionally, the organisation called for diversifying SAF production methods. Currently, most SAF is produced using the HEFA method (relying on cooking oils and animal fats). Increasing investment in other certified methods, such as Alcohol-to-Jet and Fischer-Tropsch processes, could expand output and reduce reliance on a single production pathway. A global SAF accounting framework is also essential to ensure transparency, allowing airlines to claim the environmental benefits of SAF purchases while avoiding double-counting. Such a system would support the development of a global SAF market.
A recent IATA survey indicated strong public backing for SAF initiatives. Of those surveyed, 86% supported government incentives for SAF production, and an equal proportion believed oil companies should prioritise SAF supply to airlines. While SAF production is gaining momentum, IATA emphasised that sustained policy support, investment, and coordination across sectors are crucial to meeting long-term decarbonisation goals for the aviation industry.
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