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deserves to know how much these aircraft will pollute, and what
safeguards their governments will adopt.” Greenhouse gas
emissions and air pollution from commercial aircraft are rapidly
increasing. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global aviation hit
an all-time high of 859 MMT in 2017, up 10 percent from 2015 levels.

The addition of supersonic aircraft would further erode efforts to
keep global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees, the limits of
safe warming laid out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Emissions from 2,000 supersonic aircraft over 25 years
corresponds to one-fifth of the CO2 that all international flights
could emit this century under a 1.5 degree Celsius climate trajectory.
vehicles that operate in this environment. That Emerging commercial supersonic aircraft could create severe envi-
means you have to fly. We have to build a lot of ronmental and health impacts by 2035 if plans being put forward
hardware and fly it early so we can learn and by aviation start-ups, their investors, and the Trump administration
iterate quickly.” Hermeus said it expects a flight succeed. That is the conclusion of a new study by ICCT. The paper
aboard its jet to cost about US$3,000. Another analyses the landing and take-off noise, sonic boom, and CO2 impli-
U.S. company, Boston-based Spike Aerospace cations of introducing 2,000 new commercial supersonic transport
is developing the Spike S-512 supersonic busi- (SST) aircraft serving 500 cities in 2035, a scenario envisioned by
ness jet, which could hold up to 18 passengers. a prominent SST start-up. A 2,000 strong supersonic fleet would
The Spike S-512 Quiet Supersonic Jet boasts translate to approximately 5,000 flights per day at 160 airports
to fly at Mach 1.6---450 mph faster than any located predominately in Europe, North America, the Middle East,
other civilian aircraft.
Asia, and Oceania. The impacts, in terms of noise and climate
pollution, would likely be severe.
No Longer Out of Reach
The interest in supersonic aircraft technology The most heavily impacted regions, including Canada, Germany,
has not disappeared. One of the reasons is Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Romania, Turkey, and parts of the United States,
that technology is breaking down prohibitive could be exposed to between 150 and 200 sonic booms per day,
barriers in hypersonic transport. or up to one boom every five minutes over a 16-hour flight day.
Current research is dedicated toward reduc- Exposure to aircraft noise has been linked to sleep disturbance,
ing the impact of sonic booms as they reach learning delay in children, mental health problems, and heart dis-
the ground, in an effort to make overland flight ease. The two busiest airports, Dubai International and London
acceptable. Recent research has produced Heathrow, could see in excess of 300 supersonic flight operations
promising results for low boom intensity, and per day. Other airports expected to experience 100 or more super-
has renewed interest in developing supersonic sonic landing and take-offs per day include Los Angeles, Singapore,
civil aircraft that could be considered environ- San Francisco, New York-JFK, Frankfurt, and Bangkok. The aircraft
mentally acceptable for supersonic flight over could double the area around airports exposed to substantial noise
land. The recent investments in hypersonic pollution compared to existing subsonic aircraft of the same size.
technology also signal that companies believe
there’s a market for hypersonic transport. The study estimates that the fleet of 2,000 aircraft – which could
consume 5 to 7 times as much fuel per passenger as subsonic
Health Impacts aircraft on the same routes – would emit 96 million metric tons
“Supersonic manufacturers aim to sell as (MMT) of CO2 per year. This is comparable to the combined annual
many as 2,000 supersonic jets by 2035,” emissions of US carriers American, Southwest, and Delta in 2017,
said Brandon Graver of International Council and more than three times the emissions of Lufthansa Group,
on Clean Transportation (ICCT). “The public Europe’s largest combination of carriers, in the same year. The
fleet would emit an additional 1.6 to 2.4 gigatons of CO2 over a
25-year service lifetime.

“Current supersonic sales targets, paired with ongoing efforts
to lift overland flight bans, imply severe environmental conse-
quences,” said ICCT’s Dan Rutherford, lead author of the study.
“Manufacturers should commit to meeting existing standards for
new subsonic jets and promise to adopt low boom technologies
before further developing their aircraft.”

That said, flying supersonic is clearly the future of aviation, making
the world smaller and more accessible.

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