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In High                                                        in its 2019 forecast said that the global mili-  [ UNMANNED  SYSTEMS ]

                                                                       tary UAV market would grow at a compound
                                                                       annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.14 percent from
                                                                       US$10.9bn in 2019 to US$14.8bn in 2029. The
                                                                       impact of the ongoing pandemic will be felt in
        Demand                                                         the short-term but expect the numbers to stay
                                                                       largely true to the forecast by the end of the
                                                                       decade.

                                                                       Although initially sought after for its attack
                                                                       capabilities, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
                                                                       have become increasingly sophisticated
         MILITARIES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE                          in terms of technology and are now being
         WORLD, MOST OF THEM IN THE ASIA PACIFIC,                      acquired  for intelligence,  surveillance, and
         ARE LOOKING TO EITHER DEVELOP OR ACQUIRE                      reconnaissance (ISR) functions. The age of
                                                                       military drone swarms has already dawned, and
         MALE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES                                 in future, UAVs will be able to function auton-
                                                                       omously to a greater degree with the help of
                                                                       artificial intelligence (AI), besides having elec-
           Arun Sivasankaran                                           tronic warfare (EW) capabilities.

                                                                       Less than 10 years ago, Australia, Singapore,
                                                                       South Korea and India were the only countries
         Defence budgets have shrunk in many parts of the world, but not  in the region having Medium-altitude, long-en-
         even the ongoing pandemic is expected to impede the growth of  durance (MALE) UAS, having acquired them
         the military unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) market.           from the U.S. and Israel. China, which has an
                                                                       export policy more liberal than any other coun-
         Military drones reduce risk for manned aircraft while challenging  try that makes military drones, has since made
         next-generation air defense systems in high threat environments,  massive inroads into the market. The U.S. has
         but it is not just the growing appetite for standoff weapons shown  traditionally erred on the side of caution when
         by militaries that is triggering the demand for such UAVs. The con-  it comes to exporting armed drones, but recent
         siderable development investment in the sector and the acquisition  developments in the U.S. promises to make
         programs that have been announced in recent months all point to  the market even more competitive. The Trump
         a market that is set to grow substantially during the decade.  administration has relaxed rules for the export
                                                                       of military drones, thus giving U.S. companies
         Driving Growth                                                like General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.
         Much of the demand in the sector is driven by militaries in the Asia  (GA-ASI) and Northrop Grumman a fair chance
         Pacific; North America and Europe are mature markets with not  of being competitive in a market where their
         much scope for substantial growth. Research and Markets had  products remain in high demand.



        ASIAN DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY                                                                   January 2021 | 13
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