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alongside strategic missiles. This area of the world is actually one agree with you. What you highlight there are
of the most critical and sensitive areas. Therefore, we must ask our- trends which are happening across from the UK
selves “how we are going to find ourselves in a stable situation” or and from a European perspective as well. Let’s
in other words, “how we can deter the possible threat of all three of talk about Japan’s threats from neighbouring
these nuclear powers” – and that is an ongoing question, with major countries in Asia and how Japan is address-
ramifications. As a result, the Japanese MoD decided to rewrite our ing those threats.
strategic papers.

Masanori Nishi: During the Cold War, we focused
Gary Waterfall: That’s fascinating. And, you know, deterrence is such our attention to Soviet Union. The reason was
a difficult thing to master. From a UK perspective and the nuclear simple. Only the Soviet Union had the power to
deterrence which we’ve had for decades, we presume it’s work- invade Japan through the sufficient capacity
ing well. Unfortunately, you only get a good sign of the measure of landing in the Hokkaido area in the northern
of effectiveness when it is ineffective and it fails. You only have to part of Japan. But things changed during the
look, I think, to the events in Ukraine and in terms of its inability to very difficult confrontation of the Taiwan Strait
deter. General Sir Richard Barrons, who used to Commander, Joint in 1996 and when China found itself cornered by
Forces Commander UK, was very much of the view that showed the the US rapid deployment of two aircraft carrier
community didn’t aid the collective deterrence of Ukraine. Hence we tasks forces. Follow this they sought revenge and
ended up with the Russian invasion. There is a crossroad that you’re began spending increasing amounts of money
at in the Asia Pacific region and it is positive that it is being identified in defence since the 1996. When you compare
by the government. What do you think will be the key challenges China’s 1996 defence budget to today, you can
from the implementation of the new Defence Strategies? easily find that this 30 times more. It’s enormous.
Their focus is primarily on surface ships capabil-
ity, particularly aircraft carriers – in fact, they are
Masanori Nishi: That’s one of the most difficult questions to answer. aiming to finish their third aircraft carrier in the
Honestly speaking, the government has changed its decision both very near future. Of course, North Korea also has
dramatically and suddenly and provided us with a significant amount amphibious capabilities too and has developed
of budget. From experience I can say, honestly, it’s not easy to spend a missiles and nuclear warheads over the last
all this money in a very effective manner. Fortunately, the current 20 years, showing that they are an emerging
Defense Minister, Mr Hamada, has experience of many years on threat too.
different issues with the governing party LDP, the Liberal Democratic The other difficult topic we have to focus on is
Party. He came back to the Ministry of Defense again after 12 years, Taiwan. Taiwan is really near to us and is the
but he is very much aware of the most important goals and issues. missing piece for the Chinese revolution initi-
Firstly, we have to improve our operational readiness, which is cur- ated by Mao Zedong. The unification of China
rently around 50 per cent. It is necessary to bring it back to at least is the whole great homework for current pres-
60 per cent - especially through the sustainability of our stockpile. ident – and president Xi Jinping has made it
It must also be sufficient to carry out modern warfare. These two evident that unification is the ultimate goal of
parts are key to our defensive requirements and certainly where our his policy. So we have to pay attention that what
budgetary focus must be. Of course there are a number of newly China is going to do against Taiwan, if Taiwan
emerging issues like the cyber security and space – as always, there is in danger that is going to disturb all lines of
is concern for our naval capabilities. However, with our new strategy communications from Japan to the southern
we understand our defensive and offensive deficits, and we are able direction and also there will be a numbers of the
to manage these challenges and how we can overcome them.
refugees from there. That is going to damage
the very important industrial capability mean-
ing that the whole world will be affected and
Gary Waterfall: It is interesting, isn’t it? Because from the layman you shocked. Therefore, how we are going to deter,
can never have too much money - But of course you can, because and how we are going to maintain the stability
it’s a matter of putting the money into the right area at the right time of the region? This is what we are trying to attain
to deliver the right effect. This is why so many of our conversations through our defensive build up efforts over the
here will resonate with what’s going on in the UK and in Europe. And coming years. However, things will not be easy
once more, I think to the moment of Russia’s barbaric invasion into as China is now such a great power that we
Ukraine. We have looked at what is our real readiness on paper, must ask “how we can deter it?”. That’s a very
looking at the forces we’ve got, looking at the stockpiles we have difficult question to answer.
for sustainability and imagining our way forward to a position where
we could win against a potential adversary. And now we’ve seen the
hard yards, the hard, brutal yards and loss of life involved in con- Gary Waterfall: Of course. Taiwan, as you quite
ventional warfare and an understanding that we need to be better rightly mentioned, the global trading depen-
ready. We need to better prepare training, but we also need to be dence on Taiwan as it is in Japan, and as it is
able to sustain that force at once in contact. So I would, entirely with all nations around the world, we once more
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