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are returned to Ukraine. We’ve seen the effect
        of the conflict in Ukraine on energy prices and
        indeed on oil. Taiwan are great producers and
        exporters of electronic components, meaning
        the pain will be felt greatly around the world,
        not just in the region. There is a collective
        responsibility globally to protect Taiwan’s inde-
        pendence. Considering the recent relaxation
        of the Three Principles and align that with
        your military spending increase, what are
        the biggest trends in the Japanese defence
        and military market? Especially in light of the
        Global Combat Air Program.


        Masanori Nishi: Interestingly, my father was an
        engineer specialising in jet engines. After the
        Second World War, my father told me repeat-
        edly that Japanese industrial capability is
        very skilled and efficient. The difficult point is
        we know how to make, but we are not able to
        work out why items are designed in the way they
        are. Design is certainly something missing in the
        Japan’s defensive capability. I believe Japanese
        capability is now catching up, although one
        more difficult issue is the understanding that
        we have designed our weapon systems really
        for our service and not designed for export. The
        result of this means that it will be more difficult
        for us to have arms transfer chances. Changes
        these systems means each and every system is
        going to be very expensive. This kind of issue will   KISHIDA Fumio, Prime Minister of Japan,
        be coming up in the GCAP collaboration with   Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President of the
        the UK and Italy. However, it will be an important   United States of America
        occasion for us, not only for own technological
        accumulation, but also for understanding the   States is an interesting dialogue to monitor and develop. The most
        international arms market.
                                                     important issue looks at India because they have kept its neutrality.
        The Japanese defence industry is happy with  They have developed good relations with Russia because they are
        the current budget increase, but at the same  an important counterpower against China. Moreover, India used
        time they are anxious about how long the gov-  to be sceptical towards Australia due to the two countries having
        ernment will be keeping this size of spending.  some difficulties over Indian Ocean and over who is going to con-
        Japanese industries capacity is about 70 to  trol it. But things are not developing despite the mutual distrust of
        80%. But if the Japanese community is going to  China – yet China grows as an increasingly more difficult partner
        spend more money than the than the capacity  to live near. They now threaten many countries with its size in terms
        levels, that means industry will need to build  of population, economy and military capabilities. For the region
        additional production lines and the cost is going  in East Asia, India will have a great reason to cooperate with US,
        to be reflected to the price. The question is, how  Japan, Australia, in order to settle a stable security environment in
        long will the government keep spending this  the region. As pointed out, India’s relations with Russia creates a lot
        much in defence, and do we have enough time  of things to discuss this year. How we are going to define quad for
        to cover all costs of building new production  what manner and for what purposes? It’ll be a serious topic and we
        lines? All of these questions are hanging upon  need time to find the good answer to all these four countries to be
        the Japanese industry, therefore cost issue and  satisfied, but I think the relations of these four countries are going
        cost sensitivity is going to be a sensitive question  to be good and will be improved and it is going to contribute to the
        for us in the near future and that is something  civilization of the security environment of this region.
        that the Japanese Ministry of Defense has to
        answer to satisfy the Japanese industry.
                                                     Gary Waterfall: Thank you so much for your time today. That has
        The  Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)   been a real education for me and everyone reading. I wish you every
        between Japan, Australia, India and the United   success in the coming months.
        ASIAN DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY                                                                   MARCH 2023 | 39
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