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new Main Battle Tanks (MBTs),       A Glass Half Full                   of rising tensions in the South China
        and tactical ballistic missiles. This                                   Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Incidents
        comprehensive land strategy is      As of January 2024, Indonesia’s     involving the Philippines Coast
        designed to ensure that Indonesia’s   defence budget stands at approx-  Guard and Chinese vessels illus-
        ground forces are equipped to       imately 0.7% to 0.8% of its Gross   trate the volatile nature of maritime
        address a variety of scenarios, from   Domestic Product (GDP), sig-     disputes in the region. The potential
        conventional threats to asymmetri-  nificantly lower than regional      for escalation remains high, particu-
        cal warfare.                        counterparts like Singapore.        larly as China increasingly pursues
                                            However, under Prabowo’s leader-    aggressive policies regarding its
                                            ship, there is a strong expectation   territorial claims. Prabowo’s Trident
        Archipelagic Air Shield             that this will be raised to at least   Shield initiative serves as both a

        The Archipelagic Air Shield will    1%. The 2024 State Budget allo-     deterrent against external threats
        significantly enhance Indonesian    cates Rp 139.27 trillion to the     and a response to these shifting
        Air Force’s capabilities, featuring   Ministry of Defence, prioritising   dynamics.
        advanced fighter aircraft including   modernisation efforts with Rp 22.25
        42 Rafale F4s, up to 24 F-15EX      trillion earmarked for upgrading mili-  Moreover, China’s internal chal-
        (F-15ID) jets, and at least one     tary equipment and infrastructure.  lenges, exacerbated by economic
        squadron of KF-21 Boramae.                                              slowdown and demographic imbal-
        Upgrades to the existing fleet      The outgoing president’s approval   ances resulting from its one-child
        of F-16s, Sukhoi fighters, and      of a 20% increase in defence        policy, which was enforced for 36
        Hawks will complement these new     spending reflects a growing         years between 1979 to 2015, create
        acquisitions, while logistics and   acknowledgment of the need for      pressures that could influence its
        surveillance will be bolstered with a   enhanced military capabilities in   external actions. The leadership
        fleet of C-130 Hercules and Airbus   light of evolving geopolitical chal-  may feel compelled to engage in
        A400 aircraft. The integration of   lenges. Despite these increases,    external conflict to unify national
        airborne early warning and con-     Indonesia’s defence spending        sentiment and distract from domes-
        trol systems (AWACS) will further   remains among the lowest in the     tic issues. Such scenarios heighten
        enhance situational awareness and   region, a reality that Prabowo’s    the risk of open hostilities that
        operational coordination.           administration seeks to address     could embroil Indonesia, given its
                                            through strategic investments and   geographic proximity and maritime
                                            prioritisation of domestic defence   interests.
                                            industries.
                                                                                In this complex environment,
                                            Geopolitical Context                Indonesia’s strategic importance
                                                                                is further emphasised by its role
                                            Indonesia’s strategic decisions are   within ASEAN. As regional tensions
                                            being shaped by a broader context   escalate, Indonesia could assume
                                                                                a leadership role in fostering mul-
                                                                                tilateral dialogue and cooperation
                                                                                among Southeast Asian nations. By
                                                                                promoting stability and collective
                                                                                security, Indonesia may balance
                                                                                the competing interests of regional
                                                                                powers, thereby strengthening its
                                                                                sovereignty while contributing to a
                                                                                more secure maritime environment.


                                                                                While ASEAN was never intended
                                                                                to become a military alliance,
                                                                                bilateral and multilateral defence
                                                                                and security cooperation among
                                                                                countries in the region has become
                                                                                more common over the years. This
                                                                                situation could provide Indonesia
                                                                                with an opportunity to step forward
                                                                                and potentially form some kind of

        ASIAN DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY                                                       AUGUST - OCTOBER 2024  | 37
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