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new Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), A Glass Half Full of rising tensions in the South China
and tactical ballistic missiles. This Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Incidents
comprehensive land strategy is As of January 2024, Indonesia’s involving the Philippines Coast
designed to ensure that Indonesia’s defence budget stands at approx- Guard and Chinese vessels illus-
ground forces are equipped to imately 0.7% to 0.8% of its Gross trate the volatile nature of maritime
address a variety of scenarios, from Domestic Product (GDP), sig- disputes in the region. The potential
conventional threats to asymmetri- nificantly lower than regional for escalation remains high, particu-
cal warfare. counterparts like Singapore. larly as China increasingly pursues
However, under Prabowo’s leader- aggressive policies regarding its
ship, there is a strong expectation territorial claims. Prabowo’s Trident
Archipelagic Air Shield that this will be raised to at least Shield initiative serves as both a
The Archipelagic Air Shield will 1%. The 2024 State Budget allo- deterrent against external threats
significantly enhance Indonesian cates Rp 139.27 trillion to the and a response to these shifting
Air Force’s capabilities, featuring Ministry of Defence, prioritising dynamics.
advanced fighter aircraft including modernisation efforts with Rp 22.25
42 Rafale F4s, up to 24 F-15EX trillion earmarked for upgrading mili- Moreover, China’s internal chal-
(F-15ID) jets, and at least one tary equipment and infrastructure. lenges, exacerbated by economic
squadron of KF-21 Boramae. slowdown and demographic imbal-
Upgrades to the existing fleet The outgoing president’s approval ances resulting from its one-child
of F-16s, Sukhoi fighters, and of a 20% increase in defence policy, which was enforced for 36
Hawks will complement these new spending reflects a growing years between 1979 to 2015, create
acquisitions, while logistics and acknowledgment of the need for pressures that could influence its
surveillance will be bolstered with a enhanced military capabilities in external actions. The leadership
fleet of C-130 Hercules and Airbus light of evolving geopolitical chal- may feel compelled to engage in
A400 aircraft. The integration of lenges. Despite these increases, external conflict to unify national
airborne early warning and con- Indonesia’s defence spending sentiment and distract from domes-
trol systems (AWACS) will further remains among the lowest in the tic issues. Such scenarios heighten
enhance situational awareness and region, a reality that Prabowo’s the risk of open hostilities that
operational coordination. administration seeks to address could embroil Indonesia, given its
through strategic investments and geographic proximity and maritime
prioritisation of domestic defence interests.
industries.
In this complex environment,
Geopolitical Context Indonesia’s strategic importance
is further emphasised by its role
Indonesia’s strategic decisions are within ASEAN. As regional tensions
being shaped by a broader context escalate, Indonesia could assume
a leadership role in fostering mul-
tilateral dialogue and cooperation
among Southeast Asian nations. By
promoting stability and collective
security, Indonesia may balance
the competing interests of regional
powers, thereby strengthening its
sovereignty while contributing to a
more secure maritime environment.
While ASEAN was never intended
to become a military alliance,
bilateral and multilateral defence
and security cooperation among
countries in the region has become
more common over the years. This
situation could provide Indonesia
with an opportunity to step forward
and potentially form some kind of
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