Page 22 - AAA JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2018 Online Magazine

MOVING substantially above the global average of 4.4%.

Global freight traffic is also expected to see
AHEAD an annual 3.8% increase to 2036, according

to the forecast.
Boeing’s 2017 Current Market Outlook has
projected the need for as many as 41,030 new
airplanes over the next 20 years, with Middle
East carriers expected to induct as many as
3,350 new aircraft into their fleet over the
period. The increase is healthy, but pales in
comparison with Asia, where total fleet size is
expected to go by 16,050. The study also fore-
casts an increase in passenger traffic globally,
at the rate of 4.7 percent every year until 2036.

Expect Steady Growth
The MRO industry in the Middle East is likely he expected increase in passenger
to double in size over the next decade, but traffic as well as fleet size in the region
operators must gear up for challenges posed is good news for MRO operators in
by introduction of new generation aircraft Tthe Middle East. According to Oliver
Wyman’s 2017-2027 Global Fleet and MRO
Arun Sivasankaran
Market Forecast, commercial airline MRO
fter years of enviable and sustained growth, the three growth worldwide will be healthy at 3.8 percent
big carriers in the region are facing their first full- compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the
blown crisis due to a potent combination of economic, 10-year period, growing to more than US$109
Abusiness and geopolitical strife, but the Middle East billion by 2027. Asia Pacific will be the region
commercial aviation market keeps on going from strength to seeing the fastest growth, with the Middle East
strength, spurring MRO market growth in the region. taking second place. The Middle East’s MRO
Growth in the Asia Pacific is so pronounced that it is comfortably market is expected to grow at a 5.7 percent
ahead of the other regions and will remain so for the foreseeable average annual rate, adding about US$4.4
future, but the Middle East remains a major area of interest for billion in MRO demand and constituting 9 per
aviation companies as well as MROs, thanks to its geographical cent of the global MRO market by 2027. The
location that makes it the new crossroads of global travel. With prospects are even better in the short-term; the
more than 75 per cent of the world’s population living within industry is predicted to touch the US$7 billion
an eight-hour flight of the Gulf, and with the infrastructure for mark at a 7.3 percent compound annual growth
future growth already in place, experts are unanimous in their rate (CAGR) by 2023. Narrow-body aircraft will
opinion that the possibilities for region are immense. grow faster than the other classes, globally and
in the Middle East, but experts predict that the
The Numbers Look Rosy region’s widebodies will be the leading driver of
As per the 2017 Airbus Global Market Forecast, the fleet size MRO spend over the next decade. More engine
of operators in the Middle East will more than double from the MROs will set up shop in the region to address
current level of 1,250 to 3,320 aircraft by 2036. There will be a an increasing need, they add.
substantial introduction of new aircraft as well as an increase
in passenger traffic to and from the region, according to the
forecast. The Middle East will need some 2,590 new aircraft
by 2036, says the forecast. This includes the replacement of
520 older generation aircraft and induction of 2,070 aircraft to
increase fleet size. The increase in fleet size is due to the antici-
pated increase in passenger traffic to from and within the Middle
East; traffic is expected to grow at 5.9% annually until 2036,

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