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GEOFF’S TAKE

 Geoffrey Thomas

THE NEXT BIG

THING FOR BOEING

A new commercial jetliner from
Boeing is still some time away

hen Boeing’s CEO and chairman David Calhoun erased is seven years of production at that future
any idea, or dreams, that the aerospace giant would higher rate. For the 787, production is sup-
W launch the development of a new commercial airplane posed to move to 10/month in 2025/26. Even
in this decade during the company’s 2022 Investor Conference at that higher rate, the 574-airplane backlog
last November, it sent shudders through airlines and the aviation is nearly five years of production.”
community. How could this possibly be? The world’s preeminent
and largest supplier of commercial jets for the last 60 years was So not having a direct competitor to the
walking away from a new design? Not possible, surely? A321XLR is not a major issue. One ace Boeing
does hold is its 777X – albeit a delayed ace.
Calhoun was responding to the immediate demand of launch- Bernstein notes that “although it has been
ing a competitor to Airbus’s hot selling the A321XLR which has substantially delayed, the schedule for the
a 3000km range and a few seat rows advantage over the 737 777X entry into service appears to have sta-
MAX. While that is a narrow market, blue chip airlines such as bilized and the GE9X engine issues appear to
Qantas swapped to the A320 family from the 737 because of have been addressed. In a recent interview
the attraction of the A321XLR. At the time Calhoun said “I don’t with Aviation Week, EASA’s Executive Director,
want to fill a gap in a product line. I want to build a product Patrick Ky, confirmed that significant progress
that’s going to differentiate in a way that absolutely substitutes has been made in the discussions surrounding
the airplanes that came before it and that number has to be at the certification of the 777X.
least 20, 25, maybe 30 percent better than airplanes it replaces.
And there are technologies and concepts that go with that and At issue is the FAA’s approach to how you deal
underlying ways of building it that can get you to that answer. with common mode failures versus EASA’s.
And they all take time and they all have to be proven.” According to Aviation Week’s Guy Norris

Calhoun’s immediate focus of course is the clear and present the major disagreement centres around the
777X flight control system’s susceptibility to
challenges of getting the 737MAX 10, MAX 7 and 777X certified potential common mode setbacks with EASA
as well as stabilizing the 787 programme. While not quite having
the capability of the latest A320 models the 737 MAX is nonethe- arguing that Boeing’s fly-by-wire system which
less a very capable aircraft and large orders are flowing. Other could withstand at least two failures, lacked
near-term challenges are supply chain disruptions but Calhoun adequate protection. Instead, it favoured the
hopes that the 737 rate can lift from 31 to 50 a month by 2025 Airbus approach of five distinct computers
and 787 10 a month. According to a new report New York based running four different software packages.
analysts Bernstein issued in mid-April, the supply chain issues Insiders at Boeing tell Asian Airlines and
appear to be improving notwithstanding the new quality issue Aerospace that the company has offered up
with some of the bolts that affix the aircraft’s tail that will slow more differences which it believes will pave
deliveries. the way for a solution. Ky also highlighted that
the 777X’s folding wingtips and GE9X engines
Bernstein quotes Boeing’s CEO of BCA (Boeing Commercial were also been securitized. So, five months on
Airplanes), Stan Deal saying that 737MAX production should from Calhoun’s no new plane pronouncement,
increase “very soon” with Bloomberg saying that the rate will Boeing has won orders and options for 944
lift to 38 a month mid-year. Bernstein forecasts a 737 MAX rate jets with almost 400 being for 787, produc-
of 57/month in 2026 and 63/month in 2027, “given the scale of tion has stabilised, quality issues are almost
demand.” It adds that “with planned narrowbody rate of 50/ in the rear-view mirror and certification issues
month in 2025 or 2026, with 4,224 737 MAX in backlog, that appear to be resolved.
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