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with 8.7% year-on-year demand because of the pandemic, more lines being opened up
growth. peaked in 2023, with more means more conversions,” says
than 120 narrowbody conver- McDonald. “But 79 aircraft in a
Aircraft Retirements sions and about 60 widebody year’ that is nearly half the 737-
conversions happening in the 400 freighter fleet in one year.
With belly capacity returning year. According to IBA, the There is only so much demand
and air cargo yields expected conversion market is settling out there for aircraft. If you con-
to soften, industry players have back down to pre-Covid norms. tinue to convert that number of
been treading cautiously, with As expected, narrowbody con- aircraft, you are going to flood
a number of freighter aircraft versions dominate the market, the market with too many air-
being parked or stored. In June with the 737-800 BCF the clear craft. At some point, reality will
this year, FedEx, announced leader. There were 80 narrow- set in.”
that it had permanently retired body conversions in 2021 and a
twenty-two B757-200(SF) and few more the next year, but a 50
seven related engines. The % increase last year was some- The 767-300ER has a com-
company, the largest cargo thing that caught even industry manding position among
airline in the world by fleet size experts by surprise. widebody converted freighters,
and freight tons flown, had but change is on the horizon.
earlier announced retirement Although the 737-800 BCF is “767-300ER conversions offered
of nine MD-11Fs, which it uses expected to maintain its lead by Boeing and IAI have com-
predominantly for its domestic in the narrowbody segment, manded the widebody market
operations. FedEx plans to move A321200 P2Fs are expected until now but with feedstock now
on from the MD-11F by the end to cut into the lead significantly becoming very constrained, cus-
of 2028, with nine MD-11Fs each going forward, especially as tomers are moving to A330 P2F
to be retired in 2025, 2027, and feedstock becomes available. conversions,” says McDonald.
2028, and ten in 2026. UPS, The conversions of 737 clas-
which retired six MD-11Fs from sics and 757-200, which have Changing Landscape
its fleet in 2023, will retire nine petered down to a trickle, are
more of the type this year as part expected to conclude soon. The The large widebody freighter
of its plan to overhaul its fleet conversion of regional jets and market landscape is expected to
with younger freighters. turboprops, which had seen an wear a different look by the end
increase in 2021, has slowed of the decade with a number of
Both FedEx and UPS are mod- down and the trend is expected new products on the horizon.
ernizing their fleets with younger to continue. Three 777-300ER conversion
freighters. While FedEX intends programs – IAI, Mammoth and
to add eleven B767-300Fs in Flooding the Market KMC- are underway. Mammoth
2025 and three in 2026; it also is also undertaking a 777-200
has options to acquire an addi- The 737-800 BCF has seen an LR P2F conversion while both
tional 43 freighters of the type. unprecedented number of con- Airbus and Boeing are develop-
The company is also expected versions since 2017, with 79 ing new freighters. The A350F is
to add two B777Fs in 2025 and conversions in 2023 alone. The expected to enter the market in
has options for an additional 23. global 737-800 P2F fleet grew 2025-2026, with the Boeing 777-
UPS, meanwhile, will replace to 200 aircraft in six years since 8F. expected to follow a couple
the MD-11Fs with 767 freighters, the first conversion of the type; of years later.
and in 2023 took delivery of six in comparison, it took 15 years
new 767-300Fs from Boeing. It for the 757-200 P2F and 767- Although Boeing is currently
also has 21more of the produc- 300ER P2F fleets 15 years to in pole position in the freighter
tion freighters on order. reach this size. Supply is starting market, Airbus is expected to
to outstrip demand for the 737- significantly cut into the lead
Conversions Hit Peak 800 BCF. in the future. “Moving forward,
Airbus has the wider customer
Passenger to freight (P2F) “There are more and more lines base when it comes to new con-
conversions, which accelerated opening up, and you would think versions,” says McDonald.
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