Page 14 - AAA NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2017 Online Magazine

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FEATURE PILOT SHORTAGEAge
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Looming Crisis

Airlines around the globe have started feeling the impact of the global shortage of pilots
By Arun Sivasankaran

Where have all the pilots gone? How was released in October, said that it expects passenger numbers.
are the birds going to fly? 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a As per Boeing’s 2017-2036 Pilot &
These questions, which have been raising their near doubling of the 4 billion air travelers in Technician Outlook, carriers around the globe
head among players in the commercial airline 2016. The prediction is based on a 3.6 percent will add as many as 41,030 new airplanes by
industry for quite a while now, seem more annual Compound Average Growth Rate 2036, with 16,050 of them being operated
pertinent with each passing day. In a classic (CAGR). by airlines in Asia Pacific. This will create a
case of bad timing, the global shortage of “All indicators lead to growing demand demand for 253,000 new pilots in the region.
pilots threatens to worsen at a time when the for global connectivity,” says Alexandre de Europe, Middle East and Latin America will
industry is poised for unprecedented growth Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. “It’s need 106,000, 63,000, and 52,000 pilots, in
over the next two decades, particularly in the fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, that order.
Asia Pacific region that is rapidly becoming which is driven by air links. It is also a huge According to the AITA forecast, Asia
the hub of aviation activity. challenge for governments and industry Pacific will be the source of more than
to ensure we can successfully meet this half the new passengers over the next two
The Global Situation essential demand.” With the future looking decades. China will replace the United States
According to the 2017 Boeing Global Services rosy, carriers are investing in more aircraft, as the world’s largest aviation market in
forecast, the world’s commercial aviation thus creating such a need for pilots that 2022, two years earlier than the association
industry will require approximately 637,000 demand far outstrips supply. had forecast in 2016. The United Kingdom will
new pilots in the period between 2017 and fall to fifth place by 2030, surpassed by India
2036. If you break the numbers down, that Problems for Asia in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and
is 87 new pilots every day. About 40 percent Much of the growth in air travel demand is Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets,
of the new pilots will replace those who will in the Asia Pacific region, particularly China displacing France and Italy.
retire sometime during the period. and India, where a growing middle class The five fastest-growing markets in
The need for such a large number of pilots with expendable income is choosing air over terms of annual additional passengers
is mainly due to the fact that more people other modes of travel. With low cost carriers in 2036, compared to 2017, will be China,
are flying these days than even before. The thriving in the region and making air travel with 921 million new passengers for a total
International Air Transport Association affordable to most people, all the drivers of 1.5 billion, the US with 401 million new
(IATA), in its 20-year passenger forecast that are in place for continued growth of air passengers for a total of 1.1 billion, India
14 ASIAN AIRLINES & AEROSPACE NOVEMBER / DECEMBER 2017 WWW.GBP.COM.SG