As global air traffic demand exceeds pre-pandemic levels in 2024, airlines are turning their attention to fleet expansion, according to a new report from Alton Aviation Consultancy.
According to the global aviation advisory firm’s 2024-2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast, the global fleet should increase from 31,000 aircraft in operation today to 41,100 by 2034, marking an annual growth rate of 2.8%.
“While dynamics differ in each region, the bounce back of global air travel has seen airlines shift their focus from recovery to expansion., ” said Adam Guthorn, report co-author and managing director in Alton’s New York office. “We expect to see global passenger air traffic demand to increase by 4% annually over the next decade, with Asia-Pacific leading new growth.
“Across all regions, we’re seeing strong demand for narrowbody jets such as the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX family aircraft, and we anticipate this trend to continue over the next 10 years. Narrowbody aircraft will account for two-thirds of the market by 2034, rising from 60% today.”
Despite optimistic projections, airlines face challenges as OEMs struggle to ramp up the production of new aircraft. The current aircraft shortage coupled with ongoing supply chain uncertainties and new engine technology challenges have prompted airlines to retain older aircraft to meet near-term capacity requirements.
“We’re seeing substantial order backlogs that in some cases, stretch to 2030 and beyond. Airlines have responded to the shortage of new aircraft by keeping older aircraft in operation for longer, slowing down retirements,” said Alan Lim, report co-author and director in Alton’s Singapore office. “While this solution is anticipated over the next few years, we expect the trend to reverse in the medium term when production delays are resolved. Any changes to the macroeconomic outlook or geopolitical environment have the potential to tilt the industry’s anticipated rate of growth.”
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