Embraer’s Commercial Market Outlook 2024, published on the second day of the ongoing Show, estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2043.
The relevance of the small narrowbody category is increasing. Larger aircraft are not always economically or operationally optimal for medium and lower-density markets, particularly when multiple daily frequencies are essential for those cities to stay well-connected. Fleets with these aircraft benefit when complemented by smaller narrowbodies in the sub-150-seat segment, the Market Outlook said.
A mixed fleet of small and large narrowbodies is the best way to serve the diverse characteristics of an airline network, the report said. “Small narrowbodies go where bigger jets cannot, do so more frequently, and usually more profitably. “
“A mix fleet of sub-150-seat jets and larger narrowbodies will be the successful fleet strategy for the next 20 years,” said Arjan Meijer, Embraer’s President & CEO of Commercial Aviation. “The post-pandemic environment is different in so many ways. The business/leisure passenger mix is different. Demand patterns are different. The corporate workplace is different. And e-commerce is booming. Carriers are adding capacity in big markets, yet smaller cities still need to stay well-connected to airline networks with high frequency air service. We believe aircraft in the sub-150-seat category are the most efficient and cost-effective to address that need.”
The Market Outlook also contains analysis of the cargo aircraft market and cites new opportunities for small-narrowbody freighters resulting from the projected growth in online commerce.
Highlights: World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, has returned to 2019 levels except for the Asia Pacific/China region. RPKs are forecast to grow 4% annually through 2043. Asia Pacific (including China) comes first in annual RPK regional growth rate at 5.0%, follwed by Latin America at 4.9%, Africa and the Middle East at 4.4%, Europe at 3.3 % and North America at 2.4 %.
According to the report, the 10,500 new aircraft with up to 150 seats will include 8,470 jets and 2,030 turboprops. The Market value of all new aircraft will be US$640 billion.
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